Firearms and Violent Death in the United States: Gun Ownership, Gun Control and Mortality Rates in 16 States, 2005-2009

Aims: Among advanced nations, the United States stands alone in its level of everyday violence, especially the number of citizens killed by gunfire. Debate about causes and cures ignores wide variances in rates of violent death among states and is focused on homicide to the neglect of suicide, resulting in skewed public perceptions of risk. To better inform policy discussion about gun violence, we delineate the distribution of risk for violent death from homicide and suicide across states and estimate the possible influence of gun ownership prevalence and state gun law strength on risk differences.
Methodology: We compare age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 population for violent deaths by intent and mechanism in 16 states from 2005 through 2009. We then estimate bivariate relationships between differences in violent outcomes and demographics, gun ownership, and gun regulation. All data are drawn from publicly available sources: the National Violent Death Reporting System (mortality); 2004 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (household gun ownership); Brady Campaign and Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence (state gun laws).
Results: We find wide variations in mortality rates that are statistically related to variations in the prevalence of guns in the home and the strength of state gun control laws. The incidence of suicide is most affected by the firearms availability and the weakness of gun controls. It is in more rural states with larger non-Hispanic white populations, where gun ownership is more prevalent, that suicide risk is greatest.
Conclusion: While consistent with most previous research, our findings more fully document the extent and persistence of cross-state differences in fatal violence and show more comprehensively how suicide, more than homicide, determines state violent death levels. Populations that are most resistant to limits on the availability of firearms are most likely to benefit from them.